To estimate future values of the cost indices, one is tempted to assume that the average value for the year occurred at midyear (June 30-July 1) and that the linear fit to the recent data can be extrapolated past the last data point. Based on Table 11-1, for which years is this procedure probably going to work fairly well, and for which years will it probably fail?

Table 11-1

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TABLE 11-1. Average values of Chemical Engineering Plant Cost Index (CEPCI). Base year (index = 100) is 1957-59. Year CEPCI Year CEPCI 1975 182 2011 586 1980 261 2012 585 1985 325 2013 567 1990 358 2014 576 1995 381 2015 557 2000 394 2016 542 2005 468 2017 568 2006 500 2018 603 2007 525 2019 608 2008 575 2020 596 2009 522 2021 ~708 2010 551 Feb 2022 801