After meeting with the regional sales managers, Lauretta Anderson, president of Cowpie Computers, Inc., you find that she believes that the probability that sales will grow by 10% in the next year is 0.70. After coming to this conclusion, she receives a report that John Cadariu of Minihard Software, Inc., has just announced a new operating system that will be available for customers in 8 months. From past history she knows that in situations where growth has eventually occurred, new operating systems have been announced 30% of the time.
However, in situations where growth has not eventually occurred, new operating systems have been announced 10% of the time. Based on all these facts, what is the probability that sales will grow by 10%?