Question: An eyes-only diplomatic message is to be transmitted as a binary code of 0s and 1s. Past experience with the equipment being used suggests that

An “eyes-only” diplomatic message is to be transmitted as a binary code of 0’s and 1’s. Past experience with the equipment being used suggests that if a 0 is sent, it will be (correctly) received as a 0 90% of the time (and mistakenly decoded as a 1 10% of the time). If a 1 is sent, it will be received as a 1 95% of the time (and as a 0 5% of the time). The text being sent is thought to be 70% 1’s and 30% 0’s. Suppose the next signal sent is received as a 1. What is the probability that it was sent as a 0?

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