Consider the following time series data:

a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.
c. Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.
d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain.
e. Use Excel Solver or LINGO to find the value of a that minimizes MSE.

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Week 1 2 34 5 6 Value 18 13 6 17 14