Fast Creek is a city in south central Saskatchewan located along the Trans Canada Highway. Fast Creek has a population of just over 27 000 residents and is a regional hub for the many smaller towns and hundreds of farms in the surrounding area. Fast Creek is a transportation and industrial centre, and has several federal and provincial government offices.
Fast Creek is also a sports centre, and its junior hockey team, the Fast Creek Lightning, has a long history of success in the Central Hockey League, but has not won a major trophy in close to ten years. Since the legendary Scotty Beauchamp was hired as head coach in 2006 (in the hopes of winning the elusive league and national championship), total attendance at home games for each month has increased. Prior to Beauchamp's arrival, attendance averaged 25000 to 29000 per month (or between 5000 and 5800 tickets for each of the five home games per month). Season ticket sales bumped up by almost 2000 just with the announcement of the new coach's arrival. The Fast Creek Lightning are ready to move to the big time!
The immediate issue facing the Lightning, however, is not the championship. It is capacity. The existing Fast Creek arena, built in 1953, has seating for 10 800 fans. The following table indicates total home game attendance each month of the season for the past six years.
One of Beauchamp€™s demands on joining the Lightning had been a new arena. With attendance increasing, Lightning executives and city officials have begun to face the issue head-on. Beauchamp would like a state-of-the-art training facility solely for his players as an additional feature of any expansion.
The Lightning's owner, Keith MacLennan, has decided it is time for his vice president of development to forecast when the existing arena will "max out." The expansion is, in his mind, a given. But MacLennan needs to know how long he could wait. He also seeks a revenue projection, assuming an average ticket price of $50 in 2012-13 and a 5% increase each season in future prices.
1. Develop a forecasting model, justifying its selection over other forecasting techniques, and project attendance through the 2013€“2014 season.
2. What revenues are to be expected in the 2012€“2013 and 2013-2014 seasons?
3. Discuss the team's options.

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Fast Creek Lightning Home Game Attendance 2006-2012 Month November December January Februaryb March 2006-2007 34 200 39 800 38 200 26 900 35 100 2007-2008 36 100 40 200 39 100 25 300 36 200 2008-2009 35 900 46 500 43 100 27 900 39 200 Month November December January February March 2009-2010 41 900 46 100 43 900 30 100 40 500 2010-2011 42 500 48 200 44 200 33 900 47 800 201 46 900 50 100 45 900 36 300 49 900