Question:
Get a small (1.5 oz. to 3 oz.) bag of M& M’s Milk Chocolate Candies, and randomly select one candy from your bag. With your sample size of one, is your estimated probability of getting a brown or orange candy 0 or 1—i. e., 0% or 100%? Select another candy. Now, with your two candies, is your estimated probability of getting a brown or orange candy 0%, 50%, or 100%? Repeat this process until you have selected all the candies from your bag. Create a plot (either by hand or using software) with your relative frequency estimates of π on the vertical axis and sample sizes 1 through n on the horizontal axis, where n is the total number of candies in the bag. The estimates may tend to vary wildly at first and then “settle down” to the true probability of selecting a brown or orange candy. Be sure to save your results in a data file called MyMMs for future activities and extended activities. When you’re done with this problem, feel free to eat your candies!