In his book, The Myth of the Rational Voter, our GMU colleague Bryan Caplan argues that not only can voters be rationally ignorant, they can even be rationally irrational. People in general seem to enjoy believing in some types of false ideas. If this is true, then they won’t challenge their own beliefs unless the cost of holding these beliefs is high. Instead, they’ll enjoy their delusion.
Let’s consider two examples:
a. John has watched a lot of Bruce Lee movies and likes to think that he is a champion of the martial arts who can whip any other man in a fight. One night, John is in a bar and he gets into a dispute with another man. Will John act on his beliefs and act aggressively or do you think he is more likely to rationally calculate the probability of injury and seek to avoid confrontation?
b. John has watched a lot of war movies and likes to think that his country is a champion of the military arts that can whip any other country in a fight. John’s country gets into a dispute with another country. John and everyone else in his country go the polls to vote on war. Will John act on his beliefs and vote for aggression or do you think he is more likely to rationally calculate the probability of defeat and seek to avoid confrontation?