Just prior to baseball’s spring training season, you are asked to assess the probability that a particular baseball team will win the coming World Series.
a. How would you go about making this assessment? In what sense is this assessment subjective?
b. If you knew absolutely nothing about baseball, what would be the appropriate probability assessment? As an avid sports fan, how would you modify this “naive” assessment? How would your assessment change day by day as the season progressed?