Researchers have developed statistical models based on financial ratios that predict whether a company will go bankrupt

Question:

Researchers have developed statistical models based on financial ratios that predict whether a company will go bankrupt over the next 12 months. In a test of one such model, the model correctly predicted the bankruptcy of 85% of firms that did in fact fail, and it correctly predicted nonbankruptcy for 74% of firms that did not fail. Suppose that we expect 8% of the firms in a particular city to fail over the next year. Suppose that the model predicts bankruptcy for a firm that you own. What is the probability that your firm will fail within the next 12 months?

Financial Ratios
The term is enough to curl one's hair, conjuring up those complex problems we encountered in high school math that left many of us babbling and frustrated. But when it comes to investing, that need not be the case. In fact, there are ratios that,...