Using Yahoo! Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com), find the actual fiscal fourth quarter 2019 sales (period ending January 31, 2020)
Question:
Using Yahoo! Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com), find the actual fiscal fourth quarter 2019 sales (period ending January 31, 2020) for Target Corp. Which of the models that were used in problems 2 and came closest to predicting the actual sales?
Data from Problem 2.
Using the TGT Quarterly Sales (Target Corp.) data:
Fit the sales data using the Holt-Winters Additive Seasonal model, and optimize the smoothing constants with the Solver.
Use the Forecast Sheet button to create a forecast worksheet.
Which model performs better based on the MSE?
Data from Target Corp.
Target Corporation Quarterly Revenue and Net Income | ||||
Report Date | Fiscal Year | Fiscal Quarter | Revenue | Net Income |
4/30/2006 | 2006 | 1 | 12,863 | 554 |
7/31/2006 | 2006 | 2 | 13,347 | 609 |
10/31/2006 | 2006 | 3 | 13,570 | 506 |
1/31/2007 | 2006 | 4 | 19,710 | 1,119 |
4/30/2007 | 2007 | 1 | 14,041 | 651 |
7/31/2007 | 2007 | 2 | 14,620 | 686 |
10/31/2007 | 2007 | 3 | 14,835 | 483 |
1/31/2008 | 2007 | 4 | 19,871 | 1,028 |
4/30/2008 | 2008 | 1 | 14,802 | 602 |
7/31/2008 | 2008 | 2 | 15,472 | 634 |
10/31/2008 | 2008 | 3 | 15,114 | 369 |
1/31/2009 | 2008 | 4 | 19,560 | 609 |
4/30/2009 | 2009 | 1 | 14,833 | 522 |
7/31/2009 | 2009 | 2 | 15,067 | 594 |
10/31/2009 | 2009 | 3 | 15,276 | 436 |
1/31/2010 | 2009 | 4 | 20,181 | 936 |
4/30/2010 | 2010 | 1 | 15,593 | 671 |
7/31/2010 | 2010 | 2 | 15,532 | 679 |
10/31/2010 | 2010 | 3 | 15,605 | 535 |
1/31/2011 | 2010 | 4 | 20,661 | 1,035 |
4/30/2011 | 2011 | 1 | 15,935 | 689 |
7/31/2011 | 2011 | 2 | 16,240 | 704 |
10/31/2011 | 2011 | 3 | 16,402 | 555 |
1/31/2012 | 2011 | 4 | 21,288 | 981 |
4/30/2012 | 2012 | 1 | 16,867 | 697 |
7/31/2012 | 2012 | 2 | 16,779 | 704 |
10/31/2012 | 2012 | 3 | 16,929 | 637 |
1/31/2013 | 2012 | 4 | 22,726 | 961 |
4/30/2013 | 2013 | 1 | 16,706 | 498 |
7/31/2013 | 2013 | 2 | 17,117 | 611 |
10/31/2013 | 2013 | 3 | 17,258 | 341 |
1/31/2014 | 2013 | 4 | 21,515 | 520 |
4/30/2014 | 2014 | 1 | 17,050 | 418 |
7/31/2014 | 2014 | 2 | 17,406 | 234 |
10/31/2014 | 2014 | 3 | 17,732 | 352 |
1/31/2015 | 2014 | 4 | 21,751 | 960 |
4/30/2015 | 2015 | 1 | 17,119 | 651 |
7/31/2015 | 2015 | 2 | 17,427 | 773 |
10/31/2015 | 2015 | 3 | 17,613 | 476 |
1/31/2016 | 2015 | 4 | 21,626 | 1,421 |
4/30/2016 | 2016 | 1 | 16,196 | 614 |
7/31/2016 | 2016 | 2 | 16,169 | 625 |
10/31/2016 | 2016 | 3 | 16,441 | 608 |
1/31/2017 | 2016 | 4 | 20,690 | 821 |
4/30/2017 | 2017 | 1 | 16,017 | 677 |
7/31/2017 | 2017 | 2 | 16,429 | 671 |
10/31/2017 | 2017 | 3 | 16,667 | 478 |
1/31/2018 | 2017 | 4 | 22,766 | 1102 |
4/30/2018 | 2018 | 1 | 16,781 | 717 |
7/31/2018 | 2018 | 2 | 17,776 | 799 |
10/31/2018 | 2018 | 3 | 17,821 | 616 |
1/31/2019 | 2018 | 4 | 22,977 | 798 |
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