Bernice’s Pizza Restaurant opened the previous year and in addition to sit-down restaurant service they filled take-out orders (picked up by customers) and some delivery orders using the owner’s car. The owner, Bernice Chavez, believes that about 30% of the take-out orders would have been delivery orders, if they had a dedicated delivery vehicle that would have provided faster delivery times. During the past 12 months the restaurant had the following number of takeout orders and delivery orders.

Month Take-Out Orders Delivery Orders 1 116 33 2 112 35 3 135 46 4 165 45 5 157 37 6 170 46 7 187 50 8 206 55 9 165 46 10 198 58 11 168 61 12 185 58 Bernice believes her business will grow by 10% in the coming year. If she can project 125 delivery orders per month, she will purchase a delivery truck and hire a full-time driver. Bernice is going to forecast demand for delivery orders with both a linear trend line forecast and a 3-month weighted moving average (with the most recent month weighted by 0.50, the next closest month by 0.30, and the final month by 0.20). To be safe Bernice wants both forecasts to project 125 deliveries.
What should Bernice do? LO.1