The Bayside Fountain Hotel is adjacent to County Coliseum, a 24,000-seat arena that is home to the city’s professional basketball and ice hockey teams and that hosts a variety of concerts, trade shows, and conventions throughout the year. The hotel has experienced the following occupancy rates for the past 9 years, since the coliseum opened:

Year Occupancy Rate (%)
1 83 2 78 3 75 4 81 5 86 6 85 7 89 8 90 9 86 Compute an exponential smoothing forecast with a = .20, an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast with a = .20 and b = .20, and a linear trend line forecast. Compare the three forecasts, using MAD and average error (E ), and indicate which seems to be most accurate. LO.1