The Beaver Creek Pottery Company sells bowls and mugs, hand-made by Native American artisans, at a craft store and through a Web site. Making these items requires a special type of clay and a large amount of individual person-hours, so for planning purposes, the company would like to forecast future demand, specifically through its Web site, which has increasingly become the primary source of sales. Following is the company’s Web site demand (in items sold) for the past 36 months:

Month Sales Month Sales Month Sales 1 345 13 415 25 344 2 411 14 395 26 286 3 266 15 298 27 455 4 347 16 377 28 634 5 506 17 418 29 502 6 278 18 522 30 388 7 411 19 421 31 427 8 510 20 384 32 561 9 198 21 455 33 447 10 387 22 506 34 395 11 344 23 478 35 414 12 412 24 613 36 522 Develop a linear trend forecast model, an exponentially smoothed model (a = 0.20), and a 5-month moving average forecast model and indicate which one you think should be used to forecast Web site demand. LO.1