6. Consider the following time series data.

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 24 13 20 12 19 23 15 Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?

a. Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 8.

b. Use a = .2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series.

Compute MSE and a forecast for week 8.

c. Compare the three-week moving average approach with the exponential smoothing approach using a = .2. Which appears to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE?

d. Use a smoothing constant of a = .4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts. Does a smoothing constant of .2 or .4 appear to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain.