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an introduction to management science

Questions and Answers of An Introduction to Management Science

=5. Describe the main types of basic queueing models.
=4. Identify the key measures of performance for queueing systems and the relationships between these measures.
=3. Give many examples of various types of queueing systems that are commonly encountered.
=2. Identify the characteristics of the probability distributions that are commonly used in queueing models.
=1. Describe the elements of a queueing model.
=1. Describe some important types of forecasting applications.
=2. Identify two common measures of the accuracy of forecasting methods.
=3. Adjust forecasting data to consider seasonal patterns.
=4. Describe several forecasting methods that use the pattern of historical data to forecast a future value.
=5. Apply these methods either by hand or with the software provided.
=6. Compare these methods to identify the conditions when each is particularly suitable.
=7. Describe and apply an approach to forecasting that relates the quantity of interest to one or more other quantities.
=8. Describe several forecasting methods that use expert judgment.
=1. How does the Computer Club Warehouse (CCW) operate?
=3. What is Lydia’s current major frustration?
=4. What is CCW’s 25 percent rule?
=5. What is MAD?
=6. What is MSE?
=7. What is a time series?
=1. What does a seasonal factor measure?
=4. Why is the last-value forecasting method sometimes called the naive method?
=10. What does the marketing manager say is the one big factor that drives CCW’s total sales up or down?
=2. What is the goal of time-series forecasting methods?
=7. What are the major components of CCW’s total sales?
=1. What is causal forecasting?
=5. What is the name of the method for obtaining the value of the constants, a andb, for a linear regression line?
=2. Are judgmental forecasting methods only used when statistical forecasting methods cannot be used?
=4. How does the salesforce composite method begin?
=5. When is a consumer market survey particularly helpful?
=6. When might the Delphi method be used?
=10.1.* The Hammaker Company’s newest product has had the following sales during its first five months: 5, 17, 29, 41, 39. The sales manager now wants a forecast of sales in the next month.
=a. Use the last-value method.b. Use the averaging method.c. Use the moving-average method with the three most recent months.
=d. Given the sales pattern so far, do any of these methods seem inappropriate for obtaining the forecast? Why?
=10.2. Sales of stoves have been going well for the GoodValue Department Store. These sales for the past five months have been 15, 18, 12, 17, 13. Use the following methods to obtain a forecast of
=a. The last-value method.b. The averaging method.c. The moving-average method with three months.
=d. If you feel that the conditions affecting sales next month will be the same as in the last five months, which of these methods do you prefer for obtaining the forecast? Why?
=10.3.* You have been forecasting sales the last four quarters. These forecasts and the true values that subsequently were obtained are shown below.Calculate the forecasting error for each quarter.
=10.4. Sharon Johnson, sales manager for the AlvarezBaines Company, is trying to choose between two methods for forecasting sales that she has been using during the past five months. During these
=a. Calculate and compare MAD for these two forecasting methods. Then do the same with MSE.
=b. Sharon is uncomfortable with choosing between these two methods based on such limited data, but she also does not want to delay further before making her choice. She does have similar sales data
=10.6. Figure 10.1 shows CCW’s average daily call volume for each quarter of the past three years and Figure 10.4 gives the seasonally adjusted call volumes. Lydia Weigelt now wonders what these
=a. Use only the call volumes in year 1 to determine the seasonal factors for year 2 (so that the “average” call volume for each quarter is just the actual call volume for that quarter in year
=b. Use these seasonal factors to determine the seasonally adjusted call volumes for year 2.
=c. Use the call volumes in years 1 and 2 to determine the seasonal factors for year 3.
=d. Use the seasonal factors obtained in part c to determine the seasonally adjusted call volumes for year 3.
=10.7. Even when the economy is holding steady, the unemployment rate tends to fluctuate because of seasonal effects. For example, unemployment generally goes up in Quarter 3 (summer) as students
=a. Determine the seasonal factors for the four quarters.
=b. Over the next year, the unemployment rates (not seasonally adjusted) for the four quarters turn out to
=be 7.8 percent, 7.4 percent, 8.7 percent, and 6.1 percent. Determine the seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for the four quarters. What does this progression of rates suggest about whether the
=10.8. Ralph Billett is the manager of a real estate agency. He now wishes to develop a forecast of the number of houses that will be sold by the agency over the next year.The agency’s
=a. Determine the seasonal factors for the four quarters.
=b. After considering seasonal effects, use the last-value method to forecast sales in Quarter 1 of next year.
=c. Assuming that each of the quarterly forecasts is correct, what would the last-value method forecast as the sales in each of the four quarters next year?
=d. Based on his assessment of the current state of the housing market, Ralph’s best judgment is that the agency will sell 100 houses next year. Given this forecast for the year, what is the
=10.12. The J. J. Bone Company uses exponential smoothing to forecast the average daily call volume at its call center. The forecast for last month was 782, and then the actual value turned out to be
=10.13.* You are using exponential smoothing to obtain monthly forecasts of the.sales of a certain product. The forecast for last month was 2,083, and then the actual sales turned out to be 1,973.
=10.15. Three years ago, the Admissions Office for Ivy College began using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.25 to forecast the number of applications for admission each year.
=a. Determine the forecasts that were made for each of the past three years.
=b. Calculate MAD and MSE for these three years.
=c. Determine the forecast for next year.
=10.17.* Exponential smoothing with trend, with a smoothing constant of 0.2 and a trend smoothing constant of 0.3, is being used to forecast values in a time series. At this point, the last two
=10.18. The Healthwise Company produces a variety of exercise equipment. Healthwise management is very pleased with the increasing sales of its newest model of exercise bicycle. The sales during the
=10.19.* Ben Swanson, owner and manager of Swanson’s Department Store, has decided to use statistical forecasting to get a better handle on the demand for his major products. However, Ben now needs
=a. Considering that the sales level is relatively stable, which of the most basic forecasting methods—the last-value method, the averaging method, or the moving-average method—do you feel would
=Eb. Use the last-value method retrospectively to determine what the forecasts would have been for the last 11 months of last year. What are MAD and MSE?
=Ec. Use the averaging method retrospectively to determine what the forecasts would have been for the last 11 months of last year. What are MAD and MSE?
=Ed. Use the moving-average method with n 3 retrospectively to determine what the forecasts would have been for the last nine months of last year. What are MAD and MSE?
=e. Use their MAD values to compare the three methods.
=f. Use their MSE values to compare the three methods.
=g. Do you feel comfortable in drawing a definitive conclusion about which of the three forecasting methods should be the most accurate in the future based on these 12 months of data?
=E10.20. Reconsider Problem 10.19. Ben Swanson now has decided to use the exponential smoothing method to forecast future sales of washing machines, but he needs to decide on which smoothing constant
=10.21. Reconsider Problem 10.19. For each of the forecasting methods specified in partsb, c, andd, use the forecasting module in your Interactive Management Science Modules to obtain the requested
=a. Based on your examination of the graphs for the three forecasting methods, which method do you feel is doing the best job of forecasting with the given data? Why?
=b. Ben Swanson now has found that an error was made in determining the sales for April, but he has not yet obtained the corrected sales figure. For each of the three forecasting methods, Ben wants
=c. Repeat part a if the sales for April change from 28 to 16.d. Repeat part a if the sales for April change from 28 to 40.
=10.22. Management of the Jackson Manufacturing Corporation wishes to choose a statistical forecasting method for forecasting total sales for the corporation. Total sales (in millions of dollars)
=a. Note how the sales level is shifting significantly from month to month—first trending upward and then dipping down before resuming an upward trend. Assuming that similar patterns would
=Eb. Apply the last-value method, the averaging method, and the moving-average method (with n 3) retrospectively to last year’s sales and compare their MAD values. Then compare their MSE values.
=Ec. Using an initial estimate of 120, apply the exponential smoothing method retrospectively to last year’s sales with 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, and 0.5. Compare both MAD and MSE for these five values
=Ed. Using initial estimates of 120 for the average value and 10 for the trend, apply exponential smoothing with trend retrospectively to last year’s sales. Use all combinations of the smoothing
=10.23. Reconsider Problem 10.22. Use the lessons learned from the CCW case study to address the following questions.
=a. What might be causing the significant shifts in total sales from month to month that were observed last year?
=b. Given your answer to parta, how might the basic statistical approach to forecasting total sales be improved?
=c. Describe the role of managerial judgment in applying the statistical approach developed in part b.
=10.24. Reconsider Problem 10.22. For each of the forecasting methods specified in partsb, c, and d (with smoothing constants 0.5 and 0.5 as needed), use the forecasting module in your Interactive
=a. Based on your examination of the graphs for the five forecasting methods, which method do you feel is doing the best job of forecasting with the given data? Why?
=b. Management now has been informed that an error was made in calculating the sales for April, but a corrected sales figure has not yet been obtained.Therefore, for each of the five forecasting
=c. Repeat part a if the sales for April change from 150 to 125.
=d. Repeat part a if the sales for April change from 150 to 175.
=E10.26. The choice of the smoothing constants, and , has a considerable effect on the accuracy of the forecasts obtained by using exponential smoothing with trend. For each of the following time
=10.27. The Andes Mining Company mines and ships copper ore. The company’s sales manager, Juanita Valdes, has been using the moving-average method based on the last three years of sales to forecast
=a. Explain why this pattern of demands inevitably led to significant inaccuracies in the moving-average forecasts.
=Eb. Determine the moving-average forecasts for the past seven years. What are MAD and MSE? What is the forecast for next year?
=Ec. Determine what the forecasts would have been for the past 10 years if the exponential smoothing method had been used instead with an initial estimate of 380 and a smoothing constant of 0.5.What
=Ed. Determine what the forecasts would have been for the past 10 years if exponential smoothing with trend had been used instead. Use initial estimates of 370 for the average value and 10 for the
=e. Based on the MAD and MSE values, which of these three methods do you recommend using hereafter?
=10.28. Reconsider Problem 10.27. For each of the forecasting methods specified in partsb, c, andd, use the forecasting module in your Interactive Management Science Modules to obtain the requested
=E10.29.* The Pentel Microchip Company has started production of its new microchip. The first phase in this production is the wafer fabrication process. Because of the great difficulty in
=10.30. The Centerville Water Department provides water for the entire town and outlying areas. The number of acre-feet of water consumed in each of the four seasons of the three preceding years is
=a. Determine the seasonal factors for the four seasons.

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