Refer to the scenario in Problem 42 regarding the identification of undecided voters. Apply a random forest to classify observations as undecided or not by using Vote as the target (or response) variable. Set aside 20% of the data as a test set and use 80% of the data for training and validation.

a. Determine the random forest configuration that maximizes the AUC in a validation procedure.

b. For the best-performing random forest identified in part (a), compute and interpret the precision on the test set.

Problem 42

Campaign organizers for both the Republican and Democratic parties are interested in identifying individual undecided voters who would consider voting for their party in an upcoming election. A non-partisan group has collected data on a sample of voters with tracked variables. The variables in this data are listed in the following table.

Apply logistic regression with lasso regularization to classify observations as being undecided or not by using Vote as the target (or response) variable. Set aside 20% of the data as a test set and use 80% of the data for training and validation.

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Variable Vote Age HomeOwner Gender Married HouseholdSize Description Voter status: Undecided or decided Age of voter Binary variable indicating whether voter owns home Gender identity provided by voter Marital status of voter Number of people in voter's household Annual income (in $1000) Income Education Years of education Religious Binary variable indicating whether voter regularly attends religious services