3. Consider the following statement: " There are so many uncertainties that must be taken into account when trying to predict world oil production that it is irTVJOSsible to have any confidence in anyone's predictions."

Do you agree or disagree with the statement? Explain your reasoning. Oil is a product that is much in the news these days

(remember the huge oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010).

Beyond the environmental issues of oil, several important questions have been raised about this important commodity: /Ve we running out of oil? If so, when will it happen? Is oil production going to peak and then rapidly decline? Allswers to these questions are hotly debated.

Much of the debate is focused on an idea called "peak oil theory," which says that oil production will soon peak and will then decline rapidly, causing a major oil crisis in the world. Opponents of the peak oil theory reject the argument and point to several predictions of peak oil theorists that have been wrong In the past. Illustrative claims of each group are summarized below.

The Arguments of Peak Oil Supporters Those who support the Idea of peak oil make the following arguments:

• Output from oil fields around the world is declining (in some fields the decline is about 18 percent a year).

Declines are particularly evident in the Middle East, Europe, and the U.S. That means that 3-4 million barrels a day of new oil will have to be found for global oil production just to remain steady.

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