An analyst thinks th a t next year there is a 20% chance th a t the w orld econom y w ill be good, a 50% chance th a t it w ill be neutral, and a 30% chance th a t it w ill be poor. She also predicts probabilities th a t a start-up firm , Creative Ideas, w ill be good, neutral, or poor fo r each o f the econom ic states o f th e w o rld econom y. The fo llo w in g table presents pro b abilities for three states o f th e w o rld econom y and the corresponding conditional probabilities for Creative Ideas.  P-258 

a. W hat is the probability th a t the performance o f the w orld econom y w ill be neutral and that o f creative ideas w ill be poor?

b. W hat is the probability that the performance o f Creative Ideas w ill be poor?

c. The performance o f Creative Ideas was poor. W hat is the probability that the performance o f the w orld econom y had also been poor?

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State of the World Economy Probability Performance of Economic of Creative Conditional Probability of State Ideas Creative Ideas Good 0.20 Good 0.6 Neutral 0.3 Poor 0.1 Neutral 0.50 Good 0.4 Neutral 0.3 Poor 0.3 Poor 0.30 Good 0.2 Neutral 0.3 Poor 0.5