In early 2010, lead ing U.S. stock m arkets tu m b le d m ore tha

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In early 2010, lead ing U.S. stock m arkets tu m b le d m ore tha n 2.5% as U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since August 2009 (BBC News, July 16, 2010). Given fresh economic data, an economist believes there is a 35% chance that consumer confidence will fall below 62 and only a 25%

chance that it will rise above 65.

a. According to the economist, what is the probability that consumer confidence will be between 62 and 65?

b. According to the economist, what is the probability that consumer confidence will not fall below 62? L05 

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