3.105 Tiger Funds Ltd. operates a number of mutual funds in high technology and in financial sectors. Hussein Roberts is a fund manager who runs a major fund that includes a wide variety of technology stocks. As fund manager he decides which stocks should be purchased for the mutual fund. The compensation plan for fund managers includes a first-year bonus for each stock purchased by the manager that gains more than 10% in the first six months it is held. Of those stocks that the company holds, 40% are up in value after being held for two years. In reviewing the performance of Mr. Roberts, they found that he received a first-year bonus for 60% of the stocks that he purchased that were up after two years. He also received a first-year bonus for 40% of the stocks he purchased that were not up after two years.

What is the probability that a stock will be up after two years given that Mr. Roberts received a first-year bonus?