Autoregressive model. Suppose an autoregressive model is used for data in which quarterly sales in 2005 were:

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Autoregressive model. Suppose an autoregressive model is used for data in which quarterly sales in 2005 were: 1.9, 1.7, 2.2, and 2.3 ($Billion).

a) If a first-order autoregressive model is developed with estimated parameters of and compute the forecast for Q4 of 2006.

b) Compare this forecast to the actual value ($2.9B) by computing the absolute percentage error (APE). Did you over-forecast or under-forecast?

c) Assuming these quarterly sales have a seasonal component of length 4, use the following model to compute a forecast for Q4 of 2006: Compare the APE for this forecast to that in question

a. Compare the appropriateness of the different models.

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