J. Crew revenue. J. Crew launched its first catalog in 1983, and the first J. Crew store opened in 1989 at the South Street Seaport in New York City. Since then, J.

Crew has expanded to 198 retail and 65 outlet stores across the country. Quarterly Revenues ($Million) for J. Crew follow;

use the data provided to answer the questions.

a) Identify the time series components you see in the graph. If you see seasonality, what is the period?

b) Use your answers to part a to develop an autoregressive model.

c) Examine the residuals over time to evaluate the Independence Assumption.

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400 350 300 250- 200 Total Revenues ($M) 150- F Quarter Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 +