=+44. Inventory. A shipment of road bikes has just arrived at The Spoke, a small bicycle shop, and all the boxes have been placed in the back room. The owner asks her assistant to start bringing in the boxes. The assistant sees 20 identicallooking boxes and starts bringing them into the shop at random. The owner knows that she ordered 10 women’s and 10 men’s bicycles, and so she’s surprised to find that the first six are all women’s bikes. As the seventh box is brought in, she starts thinking, “This one is bound to be a men’s bike.”