In the first nine decades of the twentieth century in baseball's National League, the percentage of times the starting pitcher pitched a complete game were: 72.7 (1900-1909), 63.4, 50.0, 44.3, 41.6, 32.8, 27.2, 22.5, 13.3 (1980-1989) (Source: George Will, Newsweek, April 10, 1989).

a. Use a logistic regression fit to describe the time trend in these data. (For simplicity, suppose the number of games was the same in each decade.) Use the fitted model to predict the percentage of complete games for each of the next three decades.

b. Repeat the analysis using a linear probability model. Are its future predic- tions realistic?