Budget preparation and comments on sales forecasting methods You have recently been appointed as the management accountant
Question:
Budget preparation and comments on sales forecasting methods You have recently been appointed as the management accountant to Alderley Ltd, a small company manufacturing two products, the Elgar and the Holst. Both products use the same type of material and labour but in different proportions. In the past, the company has had poor control over its working capital. To remedy this, you have recommended to the directors that a budgetary control system be introduced. This proposal has, now, been agreed.
Because Alderley Ltd’s production and sales are spread evenly over the year, it was agreed that the annual budget should be broken down into four periods, each of 13 weeks, and commencing with the 13 weeks ending 4 April. To help you in this task, the sales and production directors have provided you with the following information:
3. Purchasing and opening stocks The production director believes that raw material will cost £12 per kilogram over the budget period. He also plans to revise the amount of stock being kept. He estimates that the stock levels at the commencement of the budget period will be as follows:
4. Closing stocks At the end of the 13-week period closing stocks are planned to change. On the assumption that production and sales volumes for the second budget period will be similar to those in the first period:
The managing director of Alderley Ltd, Alan Dunn, has also only recently been appointed. He is keen to develop the company and has already agreed to two new products being developed.
These will be launched in 18 months’ time.
While talking to you about the budget, he mentions that the quality of sales forecasting will need to improve if the company is to grow rapidly.
Currently, the budgeted sales figure is found by initially adding 5% to the previous year’s sales volume and then revising the figure following discussions with the marketing director. He believes this approach is increasingly inadequate and now requires a more systematic approach. A few days later, Alan Dunn sends you a memo.
In that memo, he identifies three possible strategies for increasing sales volume. They are:
e more sales to existing customers;
e the development of new markets;
e the development of new products.
He asks for your help in forecasting likely sales volumes from these sources.
Task 2 Write a brief memo to Alan Dunn. Your memo should:
(a) identify four ways of forecasting future sales volume;
(b) show how each of your four ways of forecasting can be applied to one of the sales strategies identified by Alan Dunn and justify your choice;
(c) give two reasons why forecasting methods might not prove to be accurate.
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