(LO 9-5) First National Bank is doing some scenario analysis. It believes that its source of funds (the Federal Reserve) will soon increase the cost of loans. In fact, the cost of making loans is expected to change from the current 2 percent interest to either 3 or 4 percent interest in the next year. There will be no change in its $2,000,000 income at the 2 percent interest level, but net income will fall to $1,000,000 if interest rates increase to 3 percent and decrease to $100,000 if the interest rates increase to 4 percent. Finally, National predicts a 10 percent probability of a decrease to 2 percent interest rate, a 50 percent probability of a 3 percent interest rate, and a 40 percent probability of an increase to 4 percent interest rate.

What is the expected financial impact of changing interest rates at First National Bank?