The following table 0gives data on quadrennial presidential elections in the United States from 1916 to 2004.*

a. Using the data given in the following table, develop a suitable model to predict the Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote.

b. How would you use this model to predict the outcome of a presidential election?

c. Chatterjee et al. suggested considering the following model as a trial model to predict presidential elections:

V = β₀ + β₁ I + β₂D + β₃W + β₄(GI) + β₅P + β₆N + u

Estimate this model and comment on the results in relation to the results of the model you have chosen.

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Obs. Year 1 1916 0.5168 2.229 4.252 1920 0.3612 2 -11.46 16.535 1924 -3.872 3 0.4176 10 5.161 -1 1928 0.4118 4.623 0.183 0.5916 7.069 5 1932 -1 -14.9 4 1936 0.6246 11.921 2.362 3.708 0.028 1940 0.55 1 8. 1944 0.5377 1 4.119 14 5.678 1.849 1948 0.5237 8.722 10 1952 0.446 0.627 2.288 11 1956 0.4224 -1 -1.527 1.936 12 1960 0.5009 0.114 1.932 13 1964 0.6134 5.054 10 1.247 14 1968 0.496 4.836 1 3.215 1972 15 0.3821 -1 6.278 -1 4.766 16 1976 0.5105 3.663 -1 7.657 17 1980 0.447 -3.789 8.093 18 1984 0.4083 -1 5.387 5.403 19 1988 0.461 2.068 3.272 20 1992 0.5345 -1 2.293 3.692 1996 21 0.5474 2.918 2.268 1.219 22 2000 0.50265 1 8. 1.605 23 2004 0.51233 2.69 2.325