Making a practical decision can involve many variables and relations. Some suggest that making decisions using scenarios

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Making a practical decision can involve many variables and relations. Some suggest that making decisions using scenarios (for example, selecting one or more outlying values, calculating the output and then relating that output to a base case for comparison) is particularly helpful in risk management. Consider a simple calculation involving 10 independent variables, each with a distribution consisting of the minimum, most plausible and maximum values only. The combinatorial explosion results in 310 possible scenarios (Granger-Morgan and Henrion, 1990). That is, a manager has to deal with approximately 59,000 scenarios that would have to be assessed and some analyzed. Although many can be excluded from an analysis, the representations of even 100 scenarios can be overwhelming and force ad hoc choices. Can a decision tree help? Limit your answer to 800 words or less.

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