(11–17)

Decision Tree The Yoran Yacht Company (YYC), a prominent sailboat builder in Newport, may design a new 30-foot sailboat based on the “winged” keels first introduced on the 12-meter yachts that raced for the America’s Cup.

First, YYC would have to invest $10,000 at t = 0 for the design and model tank testing of the new boat. YYC’s managers believe there is a 60% probability that this phase will be successful and the project will continue. If Stage 1 is not successful, the project will be abandoned with zero salvage value.

The next stage, if undertaken, would consist of making the molds and producing two prototype boats. This would cost $500,000 at t = 1. If the boats test well, YYC would go into production. If they do not, the molds and prototypes could be sold for

$100,000. The managers estimate the probability is 80% that the boats will pass testing and that Stage 3 will be undertaken.

Stage 3 consists of converting an unused production line to produce the new design.

This would cost $1 million at t = 2. If the economy is strong at this point, the net value of sales would be $3 million; if the economy is weak, the net value would be

$1.5 million. Both net values occur at t = 3, and each state of the economy has a probability of 0.5. YYC’s corporate cost of capital is 12%.

a. Assume this project has average risk. Construct a decision tree and determine the project’s expected NPV.