As the worlds economy becomes increasingly interdependent, various exchange rates between currencies have become important in making

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As the world’s economy becomes increasingly interdependent, various exchange rates between currencies have become important in making business decisions. For many U.S. businesses, the Japanese exchange rate (in yen per U.S. dollar) is an important decision variable. This exchange rate (EXRJ) is shown in the following table by month for a two-year period:

Period…………....EXRJ

1…………………127.36

2…………………127.74

3…………………130.55

4…………………132.04

5…………………137.86

6…………………143.98

7…………………140.42

8………………...141.49

9………………...145.07

10…………….…142.21

11……………….143.53

12……………….143.69

13……………….144.98

14……………….145.69

15……………….153.31

16……………….158.46

17……………….154.04

18………………...153.7

19……………….149.04

20……………….147.46

21……………….138.44

22……………….129.59

23……………….129.22

24……………….133.89

Prepare a time-series plot of this series, and use the naive forecasting model to forecast EXRJ for each month from year 1 M2 (February) through year 3 M1 (January). 

Calculate the MAPE for the period from year 1 M2 through year 2 M12.

Exchange Rate
The value of one currency for the purpose of conversion to another. Exchange Rate means on any day, for purposes of determining the Dollar Equivalent of any currency other than Dollars, the rate at which such currency may be exchanged into Dollars...
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Forecasting And Predictive Analytics With Forecast X

ISBN: 1860

7th Edition

Authors: J. Holton Wilson, Barry Keating

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