The unemployment rate is 4.9 percent, its level in 2008 before the recession. While it is unlikely that the United States will slip into recession this year, below-trend real GDP growth cannot be ruled out and some Wall Street economists say there is a 20 percent chance of recession in 2016.

1. Using the information in the news clip along with that in Figure 22.5 (p. 582), how would you describe the state of the U.S. economy through 2014 and 2015 and at the beginning of 2016?

2. How would “below-trend real GDP growth” change the unemployment rate and what type of unemployment would change?

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