(This optional problem requires statistics know-how.) Heywood Home Healthcare is evaluating a project with the following net cash flows and probabilities:

The Year 5 values include salvage value. Heywood’s corporate cost of capital is 10 percent.
a.What is the project’s most likely (base case) NPV assuming average risk?
b.What are the project’s most likely, worst, and best case NPVs?
c.What is the project’s expected NPV on the basis of the scenario analysis?
d.What is the project’s standard deviation of NPV?

e. Assume that Heywood’s managers judge the project to have lower-than-average risk. Furthermore, the company’s policy is to adjust the corporate cost of capital up or down by 3 percentage points to account for differential risk. Is the project financially attractive?

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Year Prob = 0.2 Prob = 0.6 Prob = 0.2 0 1 ($100,000) ($100,000) ($100,000) 20,000 30,000 40,000 2 20,000 30,000 40,000 3 20,000 30,000 40,000 4 20,000 30,000 40,000 5 30,000 40,000 50,000