If we assume (1) no woman has more than 1 abortion and (2) the probability of having

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If we assume (1) no woman has more than 1 abortion and (2) the probability of having an abortion is independent across different years, what is the probability that a 15-year old woman in 1975 will have an abortion over her 30 years of reproductive life (ages 15−44, or 1975−2004)?


Women’s Health
The number of legal induced abortions per year per 1000 U.S. women ages 15−44 [14] is given in Table 4.19.
For example, of 1000 women ages 15−44 in 1980, 25 had a legal induced abortion during 1980.

Table 4.19: Annual incidence of legal induced abortions by time period

____________Legal induced abortions per year
Year ____________year 1000 women ages 15−44

1975−1979 ........................................................ 21
1980−1984 ........................................................ 25
1985−1989 ........................................................ 24
1990−1994 ........................................................ 24
1995−2004 ........................................................ 20

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