20 Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based upon the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize.

a Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 4-12.

b. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average using weights of 0.50, 0.30, and 0.20 for periods 4-12.

c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2-12 using an initial fore- cast (F) of 61 and an of 0.30.

d. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 2-12 using an initial trend forecast (7) of 1.8, an initial exponential smoothing forecast (F) of 60, an a of 0.30, and a 8 of 0.30.

e. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts made by each technique in periods 4-12. Which forecasting method do you prefer?

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ACTUAL MONTH DEMAND MONTH ACTUAL DEMAND 1 62 7 76 234 65 8 78 87 9 78 68 10 80 56 5 71 11 84 73 12 85