An analyst develops a model for forecasting bond defaults. The model is 90% accurate.

In other words, of the bonds that actually default, the model identifies 90% of them;

likewise, of the bonds that do not default, the model correctly predicts that 90% will not default. You have a portfolio of bonds, each with a 5% probability of defaulting.

Given that the model predicts that a bond will default, what is the probability that it actually defaults?