Your firm is testing a new quantitative strategy. The analyst who developed the strategy claims that there is a 55% probability that the strategy will generate positive returns on any given day. After 20 days the strategy has generated a profit only 10 times. What is the probability that the analyst is right and the actual probability of positive returns for the strategy is 55%? Assume that there are only two possible states of the world: Either the analyst is correct, or the strategy is equally likely to gain or lose money on any given day. Your prior assumption was that these two states of the world were equally likely.