Evaluate the strength of evidence for the hypotheses in the previous question.
a. Find the p-value for the hypotheses in the previous question using a simulation-based approach.
b. Based on the p-value evaluate the strength of evidence and state a conclusion about the likely voting outcome in the mayoral race if the election were to take place today.
c. To which population, if any, are you comfortable drawing your conclusion? Why?
d. If a theory-based approach would be reasonable for these data, fi nd the p-value and comment on the similarity of the p-value from the theory-based approach to the p-value you found in (a). If a theory-based approach would not be reasonable for these data, explain why not.

In order to estimate the proportion of all likely voters who will likely vote for the incumbent in the upcoming city’s mayoral race, a random sample of 267 likely voters is taken, finding that 65% state they will likely vote for the incumbent.