On 25 October 2003, at the Santa Anita Racetrack in Arcadia, California, Mr. Graham Stone, from Rapid City, South Dakota, won a single bet in which he had picked the winner of six successive races ! Mr. Stone had never visited a racetrack; racing fans across the nation were stunned. The winning horses, and the odds of each horse winning, as determined just before the race in which it ran, were as follows:

Winning Horse_________________ Odds
1. Six Perfections............................ 5–1
2. Cajun Beat .................................22–1
3. Islington........................................3–1
4. Action This Day..........................26–1
5. High Chaparral ...........................5–1
6. Pleasantly Perfect.....................14–1

Mr. Stone’s wager cost $8; his payoff was $2,687,661.60. The odds against such good fortune (or handicapping skill?), we might say in casual conversation, are “a million to one.” Mr. Stone’s payoff was at a rate far below that. Did he deserve a million-to-one payoff? How would you justify your answer?