A banana growers’ society grows banana in a region. After planting saplings, it takes around 10 months to harvest stalks of bananas. Since the production cycle is long and strong wind affects the plantation, it becomes impossible to increase the supply in the short run. Therefore, it becomes important both to the producers and retailers to balance the supply and demand. Between the producers and retailers, the producers generally take more risk. If they produce more than the supply, they lose their revenue and must absorb the production cost. In contrast, if they produce less, they will lose revenue. An accurate forecast helps banana growers minimize their risk of over and under  production. Observing last year’s demand, the society forecast the demand and advises its members accordingly. Refer the following table for the last year’s monthly demand for bananas in tons and
a. Compute a three-month moving average forecast of demand for April through January.
b. Compute a five-month moving average forecast of demand for June through January.
c. Compare the two forecasts in (a) and (b) using MAPD. Which one should the dealer use for January of the next year?

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Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Sales in tons 14 12 15 13. 12 17 15 16 17 15 19 21