Polling 2016 The 2016 U.S. presidential election was unusual in several ways. First, the candidate who won the most electoral votes, Donald Trump, did not win the most popular votes. Second, several minor-party candidates received enough votes to possibly affect the outcome. The official results showed that Hillary Clinton received 48.04% of the popular vote, Donald Trump received 45.95%, Gary Johnson got 3.28%, and Jill Stein won 1.06%. After the election, there was much discussion about the polls, which had indicated that Clinton would win. Suppose you had taken a Simple Random Sample of 1000 voters in an exit poll and asked them for whom they had voted.

1. Would you always get 480 votes for Clinton and 459 votes for Trump?

2. In 95% of such polls, your sample proportion of voters for Trump should be between what two values?

3. What might be a problem in finding a 95% confidence interval for the true proportions of Stein voters from this sample?

4. Would you expect the sample proportion of Johnson votes to vary more than, less than, or about the same as the sample proportion of Trump votes? Why?