The Centerville Water Department provides water for the entire town and outlying areas. The number of acre-feet
Question:
The Centerville Water Department provides water for the entire town and outlying areas. The number of acre-feet of water consumed in each of the four seasons of the three preceding years is shown below T
(a) Determine the seasonal factors for the four seasons.
T
(b) After considering seasonal effects, use the last-value method to forecast water consumption next winter.
(c) Assuming that each of the forecasts for the next three seasons is correct, what would the last-value method forecast as the water consumption in each of the four seasons next year?
T
(d) After considering seasonal effects, use the averaging method to forecast water consumption next winter.
T
(e) After considering seasonal effects, use the moving-average method based on four seasons to forecast water consumption next winter.
T
(f) After considering seasonal effects, use the exponential smoothing method with an initial estimate of 46 and a smoothing constant of 0.1 to forecast water consumption next winter.
T (g) Compare the MAD values of these four forecasting methods when they are applied retrospectively to the last three years.
T (h) Calculate and compare the MSE values of these four forecasting methods when they are applied retrospectively to the last three years.
Step by Step Answer:
Introduction To Operations Research
ISBN: 9780072321692
7th Edition
Authors: Frederick S. Hillier, Gerald J. Lieberman