The Fed started raising short‐term interest rates in June 2004 and raised them 14 times through early 2006. When the raises started, the 10‐year Treasury note yielded about 4.6 percent. In mid‐February 2006, the 10‐year note yielded 4.54 percent. Thus, long‐term rates did not follow the rise in short‐term rates as many expected. Even the chairman of the Fed called the failure of long‐term rates to rise a “conundrum.”