The biasvariance tradeoff: Before an election, a polling agency randomly samples n = 100 people to estimate

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The bias–variance tradeoff: Before an election, a polling agency randomly samples n = 100 people to estimate ???? = population proportion who prefer candidate A over candidate B. You estimate ???? by the sample proportion ̂????. I estimate it by 1 2 ̂???? + 1 2 (0.50). Which estimator is biased? Which estimator has smaller variance? For what range of ???? values does my estimator have smaller mean squared error?

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