In 2010, Sandra Bullock won an Academy Award for best actress. Shortly thereafter, she discovered that her husband was cheating on her. Headlines erupted about a supposed Oscar curse that befalls women, and many in the media wondered whether ambitious women— whether actors or corporate leaders—are more likely than ambitious men to run the risk of ruining their family lives. Reporters breathlessly listed female actors who were divorced within a couple of years of winning an Oscar—Julia Roberts, Helen Hunt, Kate Winslet, Halle Berry, and Reese Witherspoon among them. 

a. A good researcher always asks, “Compared to what?” In this case, what would be an appropriate comparison group to use to determine whether there really is a gender difference in likelihood of relationship breakups among Oscar winners? Explain your answer. 

b. Kate Harding (2010) reported that many men— including Russell Crowe, William Hurt, Dustin Hoffman, Robert Duvall, and Clark Gable— experienced the same outcome. Indeed, Harding counted 15 best actor winners, compared with just 8 best actress winners, who divorced not long after winning an Oscar. If she wanted to conduct statistical analyses, what test would Harding use? Explain your answer. 

c. Explain how an illusory correlation, bolstered by a confirmation bias, might have led to the headlines despite evidence to the contrary.