Big Box, the local discount retailer, is negotiating a major expansion with the Planning Board. It has been asked as part of this process to develop a sales forecast for the next several years. Quarterly sales data for the past 10 years are given in the following table:

a. Develop an appropriate forecast using a moving-average approach.
b. Develop an appropriate forecast using a simple exponential smoothing approach.
c. Develop an appropriate forecast using exponential smoothing with a trend (Holt’s method).
d. Develop an appropriate forecast using exponential smoothing with trend and cyclicality (the Holt-Winters method).
e. Which of the four forecasts developed above would you recommend using?