46 A plant engineering group needs to set up an assembly line to produce a new product. The following table describes the relationships between the activities that need to be completed for this product to be manufactured:

ACTIVITY DAYS IMMEDIATE a m b PREDECESSORS A 3 6 8 —

B 5 8 10 A C 5 6 8 A D 1 2 4 B, C E 7 11 17 D F 7 9 12 D G 6 8 9 D H 3 4 7 F, G I 3 5 7 E, F, H If using Crystal Ball , assume that the duration of each activity follows a BetaPert distribution, with the three time estimates shown for that activity.

Otherwise, assume that each activity time is normally distributed with expected time and standard deviation. Round off all activity times to two decimal places.

(a) Use simulation to determine the probability that the project will finish in 37 days or less.

(b) Use simulation to determine the probability that the project will take more than 32 days.