Solved Problem 2.5 claims that a new war in the Persian Gulf could shift the world oil supply curve to the left by 24 million barrels a day or more, causing the world price of oil to soar regardless of whether we drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. How accurate is this claim? Use the same type of analysis as in the Solved Problem to calculate how much such a shock would cause the price to rise with and without the refuge production.