The following table contains the demand from the last 10 months:

MONTH ACTUAL DEMAND MONTH ACTUAL DEMAND 1

2 3

4 5

31 34 33 35 37 6

7 8

9 10 36 38 40 40 41

a. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for these data using an ␣ of .30 and an initial forecast ( F1

) of 31.

b. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend forecast for these data using an ␣ of .30, a

␦ of .30, an initial trend forecast ( T1

) of 1, and an initial exponentially smoothed forecast

( F1

) of 30.

c. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for each forecast. Which is best?