The number of cases of merlot wine sold by the Connor Owen winery in an eight-year period is as follows:

YEAR CASES OF MERLOT WINE YEAR CASES OF MERLOT WINE 2002 2003 2004 2005 270 356 398 456 2006 2007 2008 2009 358 500 410 376 Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.20, estimate the smoothed value calculated as of the end of 2009. Use the average demand for 2002 through 2004 as your initial forecast, then smooth the forecast forward to 2009.