13 In our discussion of Winters method, a monthly seasonality of (say) 0.80 for January means that...
Question:
13 In our discussion of Winter’s method, a monthly seasonality of (say) 0.80 for January means that during January, air conditioner sales are expected to be 80% of the sales during an average month. An alternative approach to modeling seasonality is to let the seasonality factor for each month represent how far above average air conditioner sales will be during the current month. For instance, if sJan
50, then air conditioner sales during January are expected to be 50 less than air conditioner sales during an average month. If sJuly 90, then air conditioner sales during July are expected to be 90 more than air conditioner sales during an average month. Let st = the seasonality for month t after month t demand is observed Lt =the estimate of base after month t demand is observed Tt = the estimate of trend after month t demand is observed Then the Winter’s method equations given in the text are modified to be as follows (* indicates multiplication):
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Operations Research Applications And Algorithms
ISBN: 9780534380588
4th Edition
Authors: Wayne L. Winston